The latest model issued by ECMWF (European Center Medium-Weather Forecast) runs the
Current Storm Information
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Mon Jul 12 2010
Location of Center: 14.1º N Lat 128.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 455 km (245 nm) ENE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 510 km (275 nm) ENE of Gota, Caramoan
Distance 3: 530 km (285 nm) ENE of Legazpi City
Distance 4: 575 km (310 nm) ENE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 5: 605 km (327 nm) East of Daet, Cam. Norte
Distance 6: 725 km (392 nm) SE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 7: 735 km (397 nm) ESE of Infanta, Quezon
Distance 8: 800 km (432 nm) ESE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 110 kph (60 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 140 kph (75 kts)
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 150 mm [Heavy]
Minimum Central Pressure: 978 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
Present Movement: West @ 20 kph (11 kts)
Towards: Aurora-Nueva Vizcaya
Size (in Diameter): 330 km (180 nm) / Small
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 15 ft (4.5 m)
Coastal Storm Surge Height: <4>
T2K TrackMap #004 (for Public): 6 PM PhT Mon Jul 12
+ Forecast Outlook: CONSON (BASYANG) is expected to resume its WNW track through the next 2 days and intensify into a Category 1 Typhoon while moving towards Central & Northern Luzon. It shall reach its forecast peak winds of 140 kph by tomorrow afternoon [2PM JUL 13: 15.2N 124.6E] and pass more or less 200 km. to the north of Naga City between 5-8 PM tomorrow evening. CONSON shall make landfall somewhere between Baler and Casiguran in Aurora early Wednesday morning [2 AM JUL 14: 15.9N 122.4E], before crossing Central and Northern Luzon. It will be downgraded into a Tropical Storm upon traversing the mountainous terrain of Nueva Vizcaya & Benguet on Wednesday morning until the afternoon, and will move out into the South China Sea via La Union [2PM JUL 14: 16.8N 120.2E]. The 3 to 5-Day Long-Range Forecast shows the system turning more to the NW to NNW Thursday afternoon while over the South China Sea [2PM JUL 15: 18.7N 116.9E]. CONSON shall make its second landfall on Saturday along Southern China or in the vicinity of Hong Kong [2PM JUL 17: 23.2N 114.2E]. *Alternate Forecast Scenario (AFS): There is a possibility that CONSON will continue tracking Westward and pass more or less 100 km. to the north of Naga tomorrow evening, and traverse Central Luzon via Infanta or Baler -- if the strong, steering High Pressure Ridge which extends east of Taiwan will not weaken. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.
+ Effects & Hazards: CONSON's (BASYANG) small and compact circulation continues to improve while it remains over the Philippine Sea...its initial effects & hazards of this storm will start to be felt across Eastern Bicol Region beginning tomorrow morning. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the outer and inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 150 mm (heavy) near the center of CONSON. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph can be expected beginning tomorrow. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).
